"The new energy system is based on my country's energy resource endowments and implements the strategic deployment of carbon peak and carbon neutrality in the new era, new situation, and new requirements, with the goal of ensuring energy security and low-carbon development, and consolidating fossil energy support capabilities. Based on the development of clean renewable energy, the synergy and mutual assistance of multiple energy sources, and the green transformation of the energy structure as the direction, we can achieve an energy supply and demand system that optimizes the energy system and coordinates the development of energy and the economic environment. "Recently, in At the first academic seminar on energy economics with the theme of "Chinese-style modernization and construction of new energy systems", Oukai, chairman of the Coal Industry Planning and Design Institute Co., Ltd., expressed his understanding of the new energy system.
Many participating experts pointed out that in the context of the "double carbon" strategic goal, my country is accelerating the pace of energy transformation and promoting the construction of a new energy system. Security and low carbon are the key words.
Create a more resilient energy industry chain
Okai pointed out that the new energy system should be based on ensuring energy security, consolidating the foundation of energy production, improving industrial layout, and creating a more resilient and sustainable energy industry chain.
Data previously released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that in 2022, my country's total energy consumption will be 5.41 billion tons of standard coal, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Among them, coal consumption increased by 4.3%, crude oil consumption decreased by 3.1%, and natural gas consumption decreased by 1.2%. Coal consumption accounted for 56.2% of total energy consumption, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous year; consumption of clean energy such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power accounted for 25.9% of total energy consumption, an increase of 0.4 percentage points.
"my country's coal accounts for more than 95% of the proven reserves of fossil energy and mineral resources. Coal is still the safest, most economical, and most reliable energy that can be used cleanly and efficiently in my country. It is the stabilizer and ballast stone for my country's energy security." Okey pointed out.
Experts at the meeting predicted that as the “double carbon” goal advances, the proportions of coal and new energy in the energy consumption structure will show an ebb and flow trend. From now to 2030, coal will still be the basic energy, and its consumption will remain stable, but its proportion will gradually decrease, and the increase in energy consumption will gradually be made up by non-fossil energy; from 2031 to 2050, the proportion of non-fossil energy will increase to about 49%. The role is alternative energy, and coal demand accounts for 20%-25%; from 2051 to 2060, non-fossil energy becomes the main energy source, accounting for about 80%, and coal transforms into a supporting energy, accounting for about 15% of demand.
Li Zheng, dean of the Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development at Tsinghua University, also said that the guarantee for the low-carbon transformation of the energy system is to establish an intrinsically safe new energy system, which is a balance between economic and social development and green and low-carbon transformation. “On the one hand, on the basis of ensuring the fundamental balance of energy supply and demand in long-term development, strengthen operational safety and emergency safety guarantee mechanisms and measures to ensure energy supply security; on the other hand, we must recognize the value and contribution of ensuring energy security and establish a reasonable , clear and attractive mechanisms and policies to promote the enthusiasm of local governments and enterprises to assume energy security responsibilities and obligations.”
Synchronous transformation and upgrade of source, network, load and storage
On the basis of ensuring energy security, how to steadily and orderly promote the low-carbon transformation of the energy system? Many participating experts pointed out that the key lies in the large-scale development of renewable energy.
According to a reporter from China Energy News, with the rapid development of new energy, its high proportion of grid connection has brought challenges to the stable operation of the power system. For example, from a short-term perspective, high volatility on the source and load side will affect power quality when flexible resources are quickly adjusted and insufficient output; from a long-term perspective, there is great uncertainty in wind and solar power, and in extreme cases, flexible resource load tracking Power imbalance caused by insufficient capacity and power adequacy can lead to severe load shedding and affect the normal operation of society. Therefore, the construction of a flexible and intelligent new power system with new energy as the main body is crucial.
"It is expected that by 2060, on the power supply side, non-fossil energy power generation will account for more than 90%, and new energy power generation will account for about 60%; on the power grid side, the scale of cross-regional power grid interconnection will continue to expand, approximately four times that of 2020; On the energy storage side, it is estimated that 1.2 billion kilowatts of energy storage will be needed to form a multi-dimensional energy storage combined with multi-time scale energy storage system; on the load side, it will be electrification, flexible loads, and new loads,” Li Zheng pointed out, “At the same time, the terminals will be equipped with energy storage systems. The transformation path of energy consumption is to promote the comprehensive re-electrification of end-use consumption, while strengthening the utilization of zero-carbon energy such as biomass and hydrogen energy. It is expected that by 2060, the total electricity consumption of the whole society will increase from 7.5 trillion hours in 2020. About 16 trillion kilowatt hours, the electrification rate of the terminal sector will increase from 26% in 2020 to 65%.”
According to Okai, the new power system has two high characteristics, namely, high penetration rate of new energy power generation, high proportion of power electronic equipment, and an information, digital, and intelligent control system that ensures its safe and stable operation and flexible dispatch. . "In the new power system, new energy is mainly developed in a distributed manner. Massive small and dispersed power sources are mainly connected to the distribution network or general high-voltage power grid. The focus is on the power coming from the source. The power grid tends to be flat, distributed and localized. change."
Strengthen technological and institutional innovation
At present, with the introduction of relevant policies, my country's "1+N" policy system for carbon peak and carbon neutrality has been basically established. It not only deploys key emission reduction and sinking areas such as energy conservation and carbon reduction, circular economy, energy, industry, urban and rural construction, transportation, and ecological carbon sinks, but also focuses on infrastructure, talent training, technological innovation, just transformation, law, Improve the guarantee mechanism in terms of national action, finance and finance. Experts attending the meeting said that in the process of building a new energy system and promoting the realization of the "double carbon" goal, innovation in energy technology and institutional mechanisms is the basic guarantee.
"In the process of promoting the realization of the 'double carbon' goal, we need to adhere to the principle of neither establishing nor breaking, and establish a new energy security system with intrinsic safety attributes that not only guarantees economic and social development, but also promotes the rapid growth and large-scale application of renewable energy." . That is, the production equipment or production system itself is made safe through design and other means, so that it will not cause accidents even in the event of misoperation or failure," Li Zheng said.
Okai believes that there are six key tasks in building a new energy system. “The first is to enhance energy security capabilities, increase domestic oil and gas exploration, scientifically optimize the development layout of the coal industry, and promote the low-carbon transformation of the coal industry; the second is to accelerate the development of green and intelligent energy, strengthen the top-level design of digital intelligence in coal mines, and promote energy conservation in oil and gas development Apply new technologies to reduce carbon emissions; third, strengthen the clean utilization of fossil energy, promote the clean and efficient development of coal power, and scientifically develop advanced refining and chemical production capacity; fourth, strengthen the construction of new power systems, accelerate the flexibility transformation of coal-fired units, and build microgrids and virtual power plants , expand the application of technologies such as flexible power transmission; fifth, we must increase energy science and technology innovation, strengthen collaborative innovation among industry, academia, and research in the coal, oil and gas, and power industries, and deploy a number of strategic cutting-edge technologies in advance, such as intelligent mining of coal mines and high-precision oil seismic, to scientifically Evaluate domestic and foreign carbon capture and sequestration technologies; sixth, promote multi-energy complementarity and collaboration, further promote the development of new energy models and new business formats, support coal power companies to use existing resources to build large-scale wind and solar bases, and transform into comprehensive energy service providers.”
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